How do LAs forecast high needs demand?

LAs forecast high-needs demand by applying local EHC-plan rates to projected pupil numbers, year group by year group: most follow the DfE's annual SCAP method, forecasting specialist places up to 5 to 7 years ahead.

Start with the DfE framework

The official method is the DfE's Forecasting demand for SEND provision for SCAP guidance (2026 edition, published 30 April 2026). It feeds the School Capacity Survey (SCAP), which runs each June and July, and it breaks the forecast into three broad steps:

• Establish the pupil population. Take projected pupil numbers for each year group, using national pupil projections and your own birth, migration and housing data.
• Apply your local need rates. Multiply each cohort by the rate of pupils who hold an Education, Health and Care plan and need a specialist place, split by need type and placement type.
• Validate the forecast. Sense-check the output against recent trends and known pipeline before you submit.

The guidance does not mandate a single black-box model. It sets the shape and leaves you free to use a trend-based, prevalence-rate or cohort approach, whichever fits your area.

The inputs you actually use

Your live baseline is the SEN2 return. As at January 2025 there were 638,745 children and young people with an EHC plan in England, up 10.8% on the year, with 97,747 new plans issued during 2024. You convert that caseload into rates by year group and need type, then project them forward against your pupil numbers. For SCAP this runs 5 academic years ahead for primary and 7 for secondary, and the figures feed your place-planning return, which is agreed with the DfE and informs Basic Need funding.

Mind the gaps, then validate

Two gaps catch teams out. SCAP only captures school-aged pupils with an EHC plan, Reception to Year 11, so you must separately forecast early years and post-16 demand across the 0 to 25 range for sufficiency and DSG purposes, which is often where the steeper growth sits. The forecast also discharges a legal duty: under section 27 of the Children and Families Act 2014 you must keep provision in your area under review and judge whether it is sufficient. Watch the reform direction too: the February 2026 Schools White Paper proposes narrowing EHC plans to the most complex needs by 2035, so a straight extrapolation of today's trend is now a planning risk, not a safe default.

This page is general information, not clinical or legal advice.